Fed decisions (Mar-Jun)

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The Federal Reserve's policy stance over the next three months hinges on three consecutive FOMC decisions: mid-March, late April, and mid-June 2026. Each meeting will produce a new target for the upper bound of the federal funds rate, and the market resolves YES only if at least one of those three meetings results in a rate cut—a reduction in the upper bound from its prior level. Polymarket currently prices this contract at 0%, reflecting trader conviction that no cut will occur across this window. The conditional token structure on Polygon means positions settle in USDC against the actual FOMC announcements, with no ambiguity: either the upper bound moves lower at one of these three meetings, or it does not.

Historical precedent suggests sustained rate-hold cycles are common when inflation remains sticky. The Fed held rates steady through five consecutive meetings in 2023 before cutting in September; similar multi-month pauses occurred in 2015–2016. The current 0% probability reflects market expectations that the Fed will maintain its current stance or potentially hike further, rather than pivot to easing. This pricing assumes inflation data between now and June remains elevated enough to preclude cuts, or that economic conditions do not deteriorate sufficiently to force the Fed's hand.

Traders should monitor CPI and PCE releases scheduled for February, March, April, and May, alongside employment reports and Fed communications. Chair Powell's testimony to Congress typically occurs in February and May; any hawkish or dovish signal there can shift market expectations sharply. Recent Fed speakers have emphasised data dependency, meaning a significant economic slowdown or financial stress would be the primary catalyst to shift this contract away from 0%.

Methodology

This page reviews Fed decisions (Mar-Jun) across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket Scam? — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Scam? is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.