What price will Ethereum hit on June 21?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Polymarket is pricing this contract at **0% YES** today, which on a USDC-settled Polygon market means traders are effectively assigning no chance that Ethereum touches the specified threshold during the settlement window. For a hand-on-the-screen user, that is less a view on Ethereum’s long-run value than a reading of whether the target was realistically reachable before the cutoff, using the on-chain conditional token mechanics that settle against the reported price path.

The historical frame is a weaker ETH tape than much of the past year. YCharts shows Ethereum at **$1,739.16** on 21 June 2026, down **27.71%** from a year earlier, while Binance’s own price-prediction page had ETH around **$1,728.89** for 21 June and YCharts/Twelve Data both place late-June trading in the mid-$1,700s.[2][6][7] That matters because prediction markets on range-style questions usually trade on how often a short-lived move can breach the strike, not on whether spot sits near it at expiry; with ETH clustered in the same area across several data sources, the market is signalling that the asked price was either well above or well below the live range, depending on the contract’s exact threshold.[2][7]

The catalysts to watch are the usual Ethereum-specific schedule risks: exchange and ETF flow headlines, any major network upgrade timing, and macro-driven crypto repricing around US liquidity hours. The key practical point for Polymarket users is that these contracts can move on brief spikes in spot, so a late rally or sell-off on the underlying ETH/USD pair can matter more than day-end levels, especially if there is thin liquidity in the relevant strike bracket. Recent price coverage has also described ETH as coming off a sharp sell-off, which is consistent with a market still trading defensively rather than pricing a broad breakout.[1][5]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Scam? triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.