Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Scam?) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map Handicap: AG (-1.5) vs TEC Esports (+1.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: All Gamers (-3.5) vs TEC Esports (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: All Gamers (-2.5) vs TEC Esports (+2.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: All Gamers (-2.5) vs TEC Esports (+2.5) | 100% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: All Gamers (-3.5) vs TEC Esports (+3.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: All Gamers (-2.5) vs TEC Esports (+2.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 50% |
| Map 1 Winner | 0% |
| Map 2 Winner | 0% |
| Match Winner | 0% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: All Gamers (-3.5) vs TEC Esports (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 0% |
Market context
TEC Esports face All Gamers in a VCT China Stage 2 Group Omega BO3 match that was scheduled for 5:00AM ET on 20 July, yet the market currently prices a TEC win at 0% YES, implying the contest is either abandoned or All Gamers are deemed inevitable victors. On Polymarket, this conditional token trades on USDC over Polygon, where the zero price reflects a consensus that the match will not produce a TEC winner under the stated settlement rules.
Historical precedents in Valorant prediction markets show that 0% pricing typically signals a cancelled fixture rather than a mere underdog status, as seen when previous VCT China matches were voided due to roster issues or server failures, triggering the 50-50 default clause. In those cases, traders who held the losing side at near-zero prices saw no payout, while the market resolved to the neutral outcome once cancellation was confirmed, framing today’s 0% as a likely cancellation signal rather than a genuine competitive assessment.
Traders should monitor official VCT China announcements for match rescheduling or cancellation notices, as well as team social media for roster updates that could delay play beyond the seven-day window. Strafe’s community voting data from the same tournament stage shows All Gamers favoured 86.6% against Titan Esports Club, suggesting a strong performance trend that may reinforce the market’s bearish stance on TEC if the match proceeds [1]. Any delay beyond 7 days from the original 20 July date without a winner will force a 50-50 resolution, making timing the critical catalyst.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Scam?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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