Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Scam?) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Winner | 100% |
| Map 2 Winner | 100% |
| Match Winner | 100% |
| Map Handicap: QoR (-1.5) vs YFT Esports (+1.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: QoR (-2.5) vs YFT Esports (+2.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: QoR (-2.5) vs YFT Esports (+2.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 50% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: QoR (-2.5) vs YFT Esports (+2.5) | 0% |
Market context
QoR and YFT Esports have already completed their Lower bracket round 1 clash in the VCL North America: Stage 3 Playoffs, with QoR securing a 2–0 victory over YFT. The match, originally scheduled for 4:00PM ET on 4 July, concluded earlier that day at 11:00 PM UTC, confirming the outcome that the Polymarket contract now prices at 100% YES for QoR. On Polygon, this conditional token settles in USDC once the settlement window closes on 5 July 2026, locking in the win for holders who backed QoR.
Historically, 100% pricing on Polymarket for completed esports matches reflects near-certainty once results are verified on official trackers like VLR.gg and Strafe. In comparable VCL NA Stage cases, contracts resolving post-match show no divergence between crowd-implied probability and actual outcome, as the on-chain settlement mechanism enforces immediate alignment with verified match data. The 87.7% Strafe user vote for QoR prior to the match aligns with the final 2–0 scoreline, reinforcing the reliability of pre-match sentiment when teams have clear form advantages.
Traders should monitor the official VLR.gg match page for any post-match amendments, though the 2–0 result is already recorded with MVP credit to derrek. No further announcements are expected, as the tournament’s Swiss System format and Bo3 structure leave no ambiguity for this Lower Round 1 fixture. The settlement window’s end time ensures USDC payouts occur within hours, with no dependency on external delays or cancellations given the match’s completion.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Scam?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Scam? trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
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