Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Scam?) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 2 Winner | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: DetonatioN FocusMe (-2.5) vs Sharper Esport (+2.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 100% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 100% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Winner | 0% |
| Match Winner | 0% |
| Map Handicap: DFM (-1.5) vs Sharper Esport (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: DetonatioN FocusMe (-2.5) vs Sharper Esport (+2.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 0% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: DetonatioN FocusMe (-2.5) vs Sharper Esport (+2.5) | 0% |
| Map Handicap: SPE (-1.5) vs DetonatioN FocusMe (+1.5) | 0% |
Market context
DetonatioN FocusMe and Sharper Esport are scheduled to compete in the upper bracket round 2 of the VCT Pacific Play-In on 15 August 2026, with the match commencing at 07:00 ET. The best-of-three format determines advancement in Valorant's regional qualifying tournament for Pacific teams seeking main circuit placement. Polymarket's conditional token structure currently prices this outcome at zero, suggesting either extreme confidence in one team or insufficient liquidity to establish a meaningful spread on USDC-denominated contracts across Polygon.
Historical precedent in VCT Pacific Play-In brackets shows that established franchises with consistent roster continuity tend to advance from upper bracket matches against newer or less-integrated squads. DetonatioN FocusMe has maintained competitive standing in Japanese Valorant through multiple circuit iterations, whilst Sharper Esport's tournament history and recent form remain less documented in major circuit records. The 0% implied probability reflects either strong market conviction regarding the matchup's outcome or a reflection of limited trading activity on this particular contract pairing.
Traders monitoring this market should track roster announcements and any schedule adjustments from Riot Games' official VCT communications in the weeks preceding 15 August. Injury disclosures, substitute player confirmations, or format changes would materially affect settlement conditions. The seven-day postponement clause creates a critical dependency: any delay triggers a reset of the settlement window, potentially extending resolution beyond the current 17:25 UTC deadline if the match does not proceed as scheduled.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Scam?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
Trade Valorant: DetonatioN FocusMe vs Sharper Esport (BO3)… on Polymarket Scam?
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