Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Scam?) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 100% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 100% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 100% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 100% |
| Match Winner | 0% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 0% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 0% |
Market context
Eintracht Frankfurt face ROSSMANN Centaurs in the Prime League 1st Division Regular Season on 2 July 2026 at 15:00 UTC, with the match already concluding 0–1 in favour of ROSSMANN Centaurs as Strafe users predicted a 73.3% win probability for the Centaurs[2]. On Polymarket, this contract trades at 0% for the “Eintracht Frankfurt” outcome, reflecting the on-chain conditional tokens that settle to “NO” once the result is confirmed via USDC on Polygon, mirroring how similar esports markets resolve instantly after official score uploads.
Historical precedents in the Prime League show that 0% pricing often follows decisive early-game collapses or forfeits, as seen when Eintracht Frankfurt lost 1–0 to ROSSMANN Centaurs in the 2026 Spring Seeding Stage, where world ranking 129 Eintracht struggled against a stronger Centaurs lineup[1][4]. Such outcomes frame the current probability not as a speculative guess but as a settled fact, where conditional tokens lock in the “NO” resolution once the match result is verified on-chain.
Traders should monitor the official Liquipedia match details for any disqualification or walkover clauses that might alter the settlement, though the current 0–1 score suggests no such dependency[6]. Recent Strafe data confirms ROSSMANN Centaurs as the clear favourite, with no pending announcements expected to shift the outcome before the 2026-07-02 settlement window closes[2]. The on-chain mechanics ensure that USDC payouts are distributed automatically once the result is confirmed, leaving no room for ambiguity in the final resolution.
Methodology
We track LoL: Eintracht Frankfurt vs ROSSMANN Centaurs (BO1) - Prime League 1st Division Regular Season across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Scam?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Scam? trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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