LoL: Movistar KOI vs GIANTX (BO3) - LEC Regular Season

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing Movistar KOI at **66%** to beat GIANTX in this best-of-three, which means the contract is still giving GIANTX a meaningful live upset chance on Polygon with USDC-backed conditional tokens rather than treating KOI as a near-lock. That price sits above a coin-flip, but it is not extreme for a series market where one draft phase or one early-game mistake can swing a Bo3 quickly.

Recent comparable meetings point in KOI’s favour, but not by enough to remove volatility. In May 2026, KOI beat GIANTX 2–0 in the LEC Spring regular season, while broader head-to-head data across 2025 and 2026 has generally leaned towards KOI, including several longer-series wins. At the same time, GIANTX have shown they can take games when the early map state breaks their way, which matters in a Bo3 where one lost draft or one snowball game can still leave the series open.[1][8][16]

For traders, the main catalysts are straightforward: the official line-up release, any last-minute substitution, and confirmation that the match starts on schedule rather than slipping into a reserve slot or postponement. The Polymarket rules also matter operationally: if the match is not played, ends tied, or is pushed more than seven days without a winner, the market resolves 50-50 rather than to either team. Monitoring LEC schedule updates and on-day broadcast status is therefore as important as judging form, because the contract’s outcome depends on the completed series, not simply the announced fixture.[7]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews LoL: Movistar KOI vs GIANTX (BO3) - LEC Regular Season across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

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A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

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Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

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