Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket Scam? Pick polygram.ink |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open on Polymarket Scam? → |
Polymarket polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open on Polymarket Scam? → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open on Polymarket Scam? → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open on Polymarket Scam? → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open on Polymarket Scam? → |
Live odds for Polymarket-based markets come from the Polygon order book. Non-Polymarket venues show attributes only; clicking any row opens the market on Polymarket Scam?.
Active sub-markets
| First Blood in Game 3? | 100% Team Heretics Academy | 0% Eintracht Spandau |
| First Blood in Game 4? | 100% Team Heretics Academy | 0% Eintracht Spandau |
| Game 1 Winner | 0% Team Heretics Academy | 100% Eintracht Spandau |
| Game 2 Winner | 0% Team Heretics Academy | 100% Eintracht Spandau |
| Game 3 Winner | 100% Team Heretics Academy | 0% Eintracht Spandau |
| Game 4 Winner | 100% Team Heretics Academy | 0% Eintracht Spandau |
Market context
Team Heretics Academy face Eintracht Spandau in a League of Legends quarterfinal best-of-five match scheduled for 13 June at 11:00 AM ET as part of the EMEA Masters Playoffs. Polymarket currently prices Team Heretics Academy's conditional token at 95 cents on the dollar, reflecting near-certainty in the market's assessment. The settlement window closes at 21:00 UTC on 13 June, allowing six hours post-match for official results to be confirmed before conditional tokens resolve.
Heretics Academy enters as the stronger seeded side, drawing from the deeper talent pool of Spain's professional League ecosystem and the organisational resources of Team Heretics' LEC infrastructure. Eintracht Spandau, representing the German regional circuit, has historically faced significant structural disadvantages in cross-regional EMEA competition. Previous EMEA Masters brackets show academy teams from LEC-adjacent regions winning quarterfinals against lower-tier regional representatives at rates exceeding 85 per cent, establishing the baseline from which the current 95 per cent probability derives.
The critical variable remains fixture integrity. EMEA Masters scheduling has experienced delays in prior seasons, particularly when matches involve European teams across multiple time zones. Traders should monitor the official EMEA Masters Twitter account and Riot's esports website for any postponement announcements in the 48 hours preceding the match. A delay beyond seven days without a completed result would trigger the 50-50 resolution clause, fundamentally altering the conditional token's value. Barring administrative disruption, the match should proceed as scheduled, with Heretics Academy's technical advantage and experience differential supporting the current pricing.
Methodology
We track LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket Scam? is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Scam??
- Zero. Polymarket Scam? routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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