Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Scam?) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
82% | 18% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
82% | 18% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Match Winner | 82% |
| Game 1 Winner | 73% |
| Game 2 Winner | 72% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1? | 65% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 59% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 56% |
| Game Handicap: AL (-1.5) vs Karmine Corp (+1.5) | 55% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2? | 53% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 52% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 52% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 51% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 51% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 51% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 51% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 49% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 44% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 44% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 43% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 43% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 43% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 43% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 43% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 42% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 2? | 41% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 39% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 1? | 24% |
Market context
Anyone’s Legend face Karmine Corp in the LoL Quarterfinal 2 of the Esports World Cup Playoffs today, with the match set for 7:00 AM ET. On Polymarket, the contract pricing Anyone’s Legend as the winner sits at 73% YES, reflecting strong crowd confidence that aligns closely with Strafe’s community vote of 72.9% favouring the Chinese side [1]. This probability mirrors recent Esports World Cup group-stage trends where regional powerhouses like Gen.G dominated European entrants, as seen when Gen.G crushed Karmine Corp 1-0 in just 27 minutes during earlier rounds [2]. Historical data from similar BO3 matchups in this tournament suggests European teams struggle against top-tier Chinese squads unless they secure an early map advantage, making the current 73% implied probability a rational read rather than an overreaction.
Traders should monitor the official Esports World Cup broadcast schedule on DAZN for any pre-match delays or roster announcements, as coverage is live and free globally except in restricted regions like China and South Korea [3]. Any deviation from the 7:00 AM ET start time could trigger the market’s 7-day delay clause, resetting the outcome to 50-50 if unresolved. Additionally, watch for post-match analysis from Bo3.gg, which recently predicted Anyone’s Legend to win 2-1 against Top Esports in a qualifier, reinforcing their current form [4]. The on-chain mechanics on Polygon mean positions settle in USDC via conditional tokens, so liquidity depth and slippage near the 73% level will dictate entry efficiency for late traders.
Methodology
This page reviews LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Karmine Corp (BO3) - Esports World Cup Playoffs across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Scam?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Scam? trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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