Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Polymarket is pricing the contract at **0% YES** for MOUZ, which on the market means the crowd is assigning essentially no conditional-tokens value to a MOUZ win in USDC on Polygon at current levels. In practical terms, that is an extreme read: a zero price usually implies either a stale book, very thin liquidity, or a belief that the match outcome is already effectively settled elsewhere, so traders should treat it as a market signal that needs checking against live match status rather than as a clean forecast.

That 0% sits in sharp contrast with the recent competitive record. MOUZ have lost at least two recent head-to-heads against Yellow Submarine, including a 1-2 defeat on 3 May 2026 and another 2-0 loss on 5 October 2025, while CyberScore’s live match page still listed MOUZ as the favourites with an implied price of 1.65 for the opponent side[2][5][7]. Yellow Submarine also have recent playoff momentum in their broader Liquipedia record, which helps explain why a market maker might be reluctant to fade them even before considering draft strength or side selection[4].

For traders, the key catalyst is whether the upper-bracket Round 1 series actually starts and completes before the settlement window closes, because Polymarket’s conditional token resolves on the match result, but a cancellation, tie, or delay beyond seven days forces a 50-50 outcome under the market rules. Hawk Live lists the start time as 08:00 UTC on 22 June 2026, so any schedule slip, official bracket reshuffle, or stream-page mismatch is more relevant here than generic team form[2]. On a hands-on Polymarket view, the main risk is not only who wins the best-of-three, but whether the event runs cleanly enough for the contract to resolve as a straightforward winner.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Scam??

Zero. Polymarket Scam? routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.