Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs

Market context

Team Falcons face Aurora in a lower bracket quarterfinal best-of-three match at the BLAST Slam Playoffs on 5 June, with the conditional token currently pricing Falcons at 86% implied probability on Polymarket. The match is scheduled for 12:00 PM ET, with settlement occurring at 20:30 UTC the same day—a six-hour window that requires completion and official confirmation within that timeframe. USDC liquidity on Polygon will lock in at settlement, converting YES and NO positions based on the match outcome.

Falcons' elevated probability reflects their recent form and roster stability compared to Aurora, though lower bracket positioning already indicates both teams faced earlier defeats. Historical precedent from prior BLAST events shows that seeding and recent tournament performance typically correlate with match outcomes, though upsets occur frequently enough in Dota 2 that an 86% price leaves meaningful value for Aurora backers. The 14-percentage-point gap suggests the market views this as competitive but favours the higher-ranked or more consistent performer.

Traders should monitor official BLAST communications for any schedule changes or technical delays, as the seven-day cancellation clause and same-day settlement window create tight constraints. Roster confirmations and recent scrim results posted by team accounts in the 24 hours before match time often shift sentiment. Any announcement of stand-in players or last-minute substitutions could materially shift the conditional token pricing, particularly given Dota 2's dependency on hero pool familiarity and team coordination.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Resolution source: This market settles from the official publication at https://www.twitch.tv/BLASTDota. A proposer submits the result to the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon, the two-hour challenge window opens, and the smart contract pays out in USDC.

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.