Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket Scam? Pick polygram.ink |
50% | 50% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open on Polymarket Scam? → |
Polymarket polymarket.com |
50% | 50% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open on Polymarket Scam? → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open on Polymarket Scam? → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open on Polymarket Scam? → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open on Polymarket Scam? → |
Live odds for Polymarket-based markets come from the Polygon order book. Non-Polymarket venues show attributes only; clicking any row opens the market on Polymarket Scam?.
Active sub-markets
| Map 2 Winner | 50% xept | 51% Clutchain |
| Match Winner | 50% xept | 51% Clutchain |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 51% Over | 50% Under |
| Map Handicap: CC (-1.5) vs xept (+1.5) | 51% Clutchain | 50% xept |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 45% Over | 55% Under |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Clutchain (-3.5) vs xept (+3.5) | 45% Clutchain | 55% xept |
Market context
Polymarket is pricing the xept side at **50% YES**, which is effectively a coin-flip on a BO3 that sits in United21 Group B and resolves via the exchange’s USDC-settled, Polygon-based conditional token contract if a winner is recorded. The underlying match was scheduled for 20 June at 10:30 UTC, and the market’s settlement rules matter as much as the scoreline: if the game is not played, ends level, or is pushed beyond seven days without a result, it resolves 50-50 rather than to either team. [3][5]
That 50% print looks broadly consistent with a contest where the market has not yet found a strong edge, even though external match previews lean to Clutchain: one bookmaker-facing listing has Clutchain at 1.34, implying a favourite, while still leaving room for variance in a best-of-three. United21 group-stage matches are Bo3s, so maps matter, and that format usually compresses the advantage of the better side compared with a single map. [1][4][3]
For traders, the main catalysts are simple and mechanical: whether the match actually starts, whether the bracket and official schedule stay unchanged, and whether there are any lineup, forfeit, or admin announcements before the 7-day settlement cut-off. Live score pages and event listings currently show the fixture as a United21 Group B match at 10:30 UTC, but if organisers delay or void the series, the contract can still settle at 50-50 rather than on a nominal winner. [5][3][6]
Methodology
We track Counter-Strike: xept vs Clutchain (BO3) - United21 Group B on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- On Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket Scam? is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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