Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Scam?) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 2 Winner | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Sharks (-3.5) vs ECHO (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: ECHO (-3.5) vs Sharks (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Winner | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Sharks (-3.5) vs ECHO (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: ECHO (-3.5) vs Sharks (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Match Winner | 0% |
| Map Handicap: SHK (-1.5) vs ECHO (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: ECHO (-6.5) vs Sharks (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: ECHO (-3.5) vs Sharks (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: ECHO (-9.5) vs Sharks (+9.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 30.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Sharks (-6.5) vs ECHO (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Sharks (-3.5) vs ECHO (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 33.5 | 0% |
| Map Handicap: ECHO (-1.5) vs Sharks (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Sharks (-6.5) vs ECHO (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Sharks (-6.5) vs ECHO (+6.5) | 0% |
Market context
Sharks Esports lost their 2026 Super Draculan Season 1 third-place decider against ECHO, with the match ending 1–2 in favour of the Danish side on 28 June. The contest, a Best-of-3 played at Bucharest LAN, saw ECHO secure victories on Inferno (13–9) and Ancient (13–8) after dropping Nuke (13–16). This outcome is already settled on-chain, meaning the Polymarket contract for “Sharks to win” now trades at 0% YES, reflecting the completed result rather than any future uncertainty.
Historically, conditional tokens on Polygon settle immediately once real-world events conclude, and USDC balances adjust without delay. Comparable cases from prior LAN tournaments show that markets priced at 0% post-match never rebound, even if teams have strong recent form—Sharks and ECHO both won three of their last five matches before this clash, yet the on-chain price remained fixed at zero once the final map ended. This mirrors how Kalshi and other regulated platforms treat resolved esports outcomes: no reversion, no ambiguity.
Traders should monitor official tournament announcements for any post-match appeals or disqualifications, though none are expected given the LAN setting and clear scoreline. Recent coverage from Strafe confirms the match result and map details, solidifying the settlement. With the settlement window ending 2026-06-28T19:30:00Z already passed, the contract’s USDC payout is locked, and conditional tokens will resolve to ECHO. No further catalysts exist; the on-chain mechanics have executed, and the market is closed.
Methodology
This page reviews Counter-Strike: Sharks vs ECHO (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
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