Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Scam?) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
90% | 10% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
90% | 10% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 90% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: FaZe Up Next (-3.5) vs Alpha Dominion Nation (+3.5) | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: FaZe Up Next (-3.5) vs Alpha Dominion Nation (+3.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: FaZe Up Next (-6.5) vs Alpha Dominion Nation (+6.5) | 50% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: FaZe Up Next (-3.5) vs Alpha Dominion Nation (+3.5) | 10% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: FaZe Up Next (-6.5) vs Alpha Dominion Nation (+6.5) | 10% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 1% |
| Map 1 Winner | 0% |
| Map 2 Winner | 0% |
| Match Winner | 0% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 0% |
| Map Handicap: FaZe UN (-1.5) vs Alpha Dominion Nation (+1.5) | 0% |
Market context
FaZe Up Next, the academy squad of FaZe Clan, faces Alpha Dominion Nation in the United21 Season 52 Upper Bracket quarterfinal 2, a Best-of-3 match scheduled for 6:30 AM ET today. On Polymarket, this contract trades at 0% YES for FaZe Up Next, implying the crowd expects an ADN victory or a cancellation, despite Liquipedia and Polymarket data identifying FaZe Up Next as the clear favourite entering the playoffs [5][6].
Historical precedent in academy-tier Counter-Strike suggests such extreme pricing often signals a roster issue or a scheduled cancellation rather than pure skill disparity. In the United21 playoffs, Alpha Dominion Nation recently defeated Vitality Academy 2–1 in a Group C decider on 12 July, demonstrating they can beat higher-profile academy teams [1]. Conversely, FaZe Up Next secured their playoff spot with a dominant 2–0 win over Vasteras, posting a 26–6 aggregate score, which contradicts the 0% implied probability unless the match is not proceeding [7].
Traders must monitor the official United21 schedule and team announcements for any cancellation notices before the settlement window closes at 16:50 UTC. The match depends on both teams confirming their rosters for the 13 July slot; if delayed beyond seven days or cancelled, the market resolves to 50–50 [6]. Recent activity shows FaZe Up Next holding a 1–0 Group Stage record, but the 0% price suggests the market anticipates a structural failure in the fixture rather than a competitive loss [8].
Methodology
This page reviews Counter-Strike: FaZe Up Next vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Playoffs across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Scam?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
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