Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket Scam? Pick polygram.ink |
0% | 100% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open on Polymarket Scam? → |
Polymarket polymarket.com |
0% | 100% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open on Polymarket Scam? → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open on Polymarket Scam? → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open on Polymarket Scam? → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open on Polymarket Scam? → |
Live odds for Polymarket-based markets come from the Polygon order book. Non-Polymarket venues show attributes only; clicking any row opens the market on Polymarket Scam?.
Active sub-markets
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: RUSTEC (-6.5) vs against All authority (+6.5) | 0% RUSTEC | 100% against All authority |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% Over | 100% Under |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 27.5 | 100% Over | 0% Under |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: against All authority (-3.5) vs RUSTEC (+3.5) | 0% against All authority | 100% RUSTEC |
| Map Handicap: aAa (-1.5) vs RUSTEC (+1.5) | 0% against All authority | 100% RUSTEC |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: against All authority (-3.5) vs RUSTEC (+3.5) | 100% against All authority | 0% RUSTEC |
Market context
The Counter-Strike matchup between against All authority and RUSTEC in European Pro League Series 7 Group C is scheduled for 10 June at 04:00 ET. On Polymarket, this conditional token contract currently prices at 0% YES, meaning traders are offering no meaningful probability that against All authority take the best-of-three series. The USDC settlement sits entirely on the RUSTEC side, reflecting either overwhelming confidence in RUSTEC's superiority or minimal liquidity in what may be perceived as a foregone conclusion. Given the 7-day resolution window and the early morning scheduling, execution risk remains material—any cancellation, postponement beyond the deadline, or technical failure triggers a 50-50 split on Polygon.
Against All authority operates as a lower-tier European roster, whilst RUSTEC has demonstrated more consistent qualification and placement in regional competitions. Historical precedent suggests that when Polymarket prices a professional esports match at 0%, the underlying team typically faces genuine structural disadvantages: roster depth, recent map pool performance, or head-to-head records that justify near-total dismissal. The EPL format rewards consistency across multiple maps, an area where established squads like RUSTEC typically dominate newer lineups.
Traders should monitor EPL's official schedule for any postponements or venue changes in the 48 hours before the match. Recent roster changes or stand-in announcements—particularly if against All authority field a substitute—would shift the conditional token pricing materially. Polymarket's zero-probability pricing leaves no margin for upset scenarios, making any positive news around against All authority's preparation or RUSTEC's availability the primary catalyst for repricing.
Methodology
We track Counter-Strike: against All authority vs RUSTEC (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 Group C on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- On Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Scam? triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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