Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Scam?) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map Handicap: K27 (-1.5) vs 3DMAX (+1.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: K27 (-3.5) vs 3DMAX (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: K27 (-3.5) vs 3DMAX (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: K27 (-6.5) vs 3DMAX (+6.5) | 90% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 51% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 10% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 10% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: 3DMAX (-9.5) vs K27 (+9.5) | 10% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: 3DMAX (-6.5) vs K27 (+6.5) | 1% |
| Map 1 Winner | 0% |
| Map 2 Winner | 0% |
| Match Winner | 0% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 0% |
| Map Handicap: 3DMAX (-1.5) vs K27 (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: K27 (-12.5) vs 3DMAX (+12.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: 3DMAX (-3.5) vs K27 (+3.5) | 0% |
Market context
The Lower Bracket Semifinal of Stake Ranked Episode 3 Playoffs pits 3DMAX against K27 in a Best-of-3 Counter-Strike match, scheduled for 1:30PM ET today. Polymarket prices the contract for a 3DMAX victory at 0% YES, implying the crowd expects K27 to win decisively or the match to be voided. On-chain, this conditional token trades in USDC on Polygon, where the zero price reflects either a perceived skill gap or a high risk of cancellation before the first map begins.
Historical data from this tournament shows K27’s lower-bracket resilience, having eliminated Wildcard 2-0 in the preceding round to secure their semifinal spot [3]. In comparable Stake Ranked episodes, teams entering the lower bracket with a 2-0 sweep often maintain momentum against untested opponents, while 0% pricing on a BO3 frequently signals either a forfeiture expectation or a scheduled cancellation rather than a genuine competitive mismatch. The absence of any recent 3DMAX activity in the playoffs further skews sentiment toward K27.
Traders should monitor the official Stake Ranked schedule for any delay notices or team roster announcements, as matches delayed beyond seven days without a winner resolve to 50-50. No pre-match news has been published regarding 3DMAX’s readiness, and the lack of a confirmed start time on bo3.gg for this specific fixture raises cancellation concerns [2]. Watch for USDC liquidity shifts on the Polygon network, which often precede official tournament updates in esports markets.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Scam?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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