US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket currently prices a US-Iran nuclear agreement by end-May 2026 at 18% YES, implying traders assess a roughly one-in-five chance that Washington and Tehran will announce a formal mutual accord on Iranian nuclear activities within the next 18 months. The market reflects deep scepticism about near-term diplomatic breakthrough, despite ongoing indirect negotiations through intermediaries and periodic statements of willingness to engage.

The 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) provides the most relevant historical benchmark. That agreement took roughly two years of intensive multilateral talks to conclude, involved six world powers alongside Iran, and required sustained political will from both the Obama administration and Iranian leadership under Hassan Rouhani. The Trump administration's 2018 withdrawal and subsequent maximum-pressure sanctions campaign fundamentally altered the negotiating landscape; Iran has since accelerated uranium enrichment and reduced International Atomic Energy Agency inspection access. Any new accord would need to address not only the original JCPOA framework but also the intervening escalation and mutual mistrust accumulated over seven years.

Traders should monitor statements from the incoming Trump administration regarding Iran policy, scheduled IAEA Board of Governors meetings, and any shifts in Iranian domestic politics ahead of 2025 elections. Recent reporting from Reuters and AP News indicates both sides have maintained backchannel contacts, though no formal talks have been scheduled. The 18-month timeframe requires either a dramatic diplomatic reversal or a negotiated settlement that can be announced and formalised within that window—a compressed timeline given historical precedent and current geopolitical tensions.

Methodology

We track US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Scam? is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Scam??

Zero. Polymarket Scam? routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Scam? triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.