What price will Bitcoin hit on May 31?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Bitcoin's price on 31 May 2026 remains unresolved, with Polymarket's conditional token pair currently pricing the YES side at zero, reflecting either extreme scepticism about the outcome or minimal trading volume in this particular contract. The settlement window closes 1 June 2026, giving traders a narrow window to position before the May close. On Polygon, the USDC-collateralised contract structure means positions settle against the spot price recorded at UTC midnight on the final day of May, with no leverage or margin available—only outright long or short exposure through the conditional token mechanics.

Historical Bitcoin price movements suggest that single-day targets eighteen months forward carry substantial uncertainty. In 2024, Bitcoin ranged from roughly $16,500 to $73,000, demonstrating the volatility traders face when forecasting specific price levels. The zero probability currently assigned likely reflects either a price target so extreme that the market deems it implausible, or simply insufficient liquidity and interest in this particular settlement date. Comparable Polymarket contracts on Bitcoin's year-end prices have historically attracted more volume, suggesting this May 31 contract may remain thin.

Catalysts shaping Bitcoin's trajectory through May 2026 include Federal Reserve policy decisions, institutional adoption announcements, and regulatory developments in major jurisdictions. Recent spot Bitcoin ETF approvals in the US have reduced friction for traditional fund inflows, though macroeconomic conditions—particularly inflation data and interest rate expectations—remain primary drivers. Traders should monitor quarterly earnings from major crypto exchanges and any legislative changes affecting custody or taxation frameworks.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Scam??

Zero. Polymarket Scam? routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Scam? triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.