What price will Bitcoin hit on May 10?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Bitcoin's price movement on a specific calendar date represents a discrete event that traders on Polymarket are currently pricing at zero probability of occurrence, suggesting the market views the settlement criteria as either extremely unlikely or technically unachievable within the defined parameters. The contract settles based on Bitcoin's spot price on 10 May 2026, with resolution occurring on 11 May at 04:00 UTC.

Historical precedent shows that single-day price targets for Bitcoin often collapse to near-zero implied probability when the target is set far outside recent trading ranges or when settlement mechanics require precise price discovery at a specific moment. Bitcoin's volatility, whilst substantial intraday, rarely produces the extreme moves necessary to reach prices that would justify non-zero probabilities months in advance. The current 0% crowd probability reflects either a price target so distant from current levels that traders assess it as negligible, or ambiguity around which price feed determines settlement—a critical detail given Bitcoin trades across multiple exchanges with occasional divergences.

Traders monitoring this contract should track macroeconomic announcements scheduled near May 2026, including potential Federal Reserve policy decisions or major regulatory developments affecting cryptocurrency markets. Recent Bitcoin price action and volatility indices provide baseline context for assessing whether the settlement price target remains within plausible ranges. The conditional token mechanics on Polygon mean settlement depends entirely on accurate price reporting; any oracle disputes or technical failures would affect resolution, making the underlying data source a material consideration for position holders.

Methodology

We track What price will Bitcoin hit on May 10? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.