What price will Bitcoin hit on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

Bitcoin is trading near $62,000 on 13 July 2026, with the Polymarket contract for “What price will Bitcoin hit on July 13?” priced at 0% YES today, implying the crowd expects no significant price spike above any hidden threshold before settlement. The contract settles on-chain using USDC on Polygon, relying on conditional tokens that auto-execute payout once the oracle confirms the highest intraday price reached.

Historically, similar date-specific Bitcoin price markets have seen 0% YES probabilities when the asset trades in a narrow range ahead of key macro data, as seen in mid-2024 when BTC hovered between $58k–$62k before the Fed meeting, with no breakout until post-event volatility [1]. In those cases, the market correctly priced in a “choppy” session, and traders who bought YES at 0% lost their stake when the price never breached the implied barrier.

Traders should watch the mid-July US inflation report and the Fed’s 28–29 July meeting, as cooler inflation could trigger ETF inflows and push BTC above $63,800, while hot data or hawkish Fed rhetoric may drag it under $58,200 [1]. A recent Wall Street analysis notes that if ETF money flows back in and Warsh maintains a softer tone, Bitcoin could hold above $60,000 and turn it into support, potentially breaking the downtrend [1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Scam? trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.