What price will Bitcoin hit on June 13?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Bitcoin's price action on 13 June 2026 will determine settlement of this contract. Polymarket currently prices the YES outcome at 1%, implying traders assess the probability of Bitcoin reaching an unspecified target price on that specific date as remote. The contract trades on Polygon via USDC-denominated conditional tokens, with settlement contingent on price data available by 04:00 UTC on 14 June. The tight probability reflects either a high target threshold or broad consensus that single-day price movements of the magnitude required are statistically unlikely.

Historical precedent suggests extreme single-day Bitcoin moves occur during major macroeconomic shocks or regulatory announcements rather than on arbitrary calendar dates. Bitcoin's largest daily percentage moves—exceeding 20%—have clustered around Federal Reserve policy shifts, banking sector stress, or significant exchange collapses. The 1% probability aligns with base rates for tail-event volatility absent a known catalyst. Between now and June 2026, traders should monitor Federal Reserve communications, potential Bitcoin spot ETF policy changes, and geopolitical developments affecting risk sentiment, as these have historically driven outsized price swings.

The settlement window's specificity—a single calendar day rather than a price range over weeks—compounds the difficulty. Even if Bitcoin experiences substantial volatility in June 2026, the contract requires price movement concentrated on the 13th. Traders holding YES positions face compounding uncertainty: directional conviction, timing precision, and the absence of announced catalysts for that particular date. The 1% pricing reflects these structural constraints rather than bearish Bitcoin sentiment alone.

Methodology

This page reviews What price will Bitcoin hit on June 13? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket Scam? — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Scam? is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Scam??

Zero. Polymarket Scam? routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Scam? triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.