What price will Bitcoin hit on August 8?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket has this contract trading as a tight range bet on where Bitcoin lands by the market’s August 8 checkpoint, with the crowd currently treating **0% YES** as the price for this specific strike. In practice, traders are staking USDC on Polygon, and the position settles through Polymarket’s conditional-token structure, so the key input is the exchange-rate path into the resolution timestamp rather than the broader narrative around Bitcoin.

That framing matters because recent comparable prints have sat in the mid-$60,000s, with Bitcoin closing around **$64.9k** on 8 August 2026 and the prior week also clustered close to that level. Yahoo Finance and StatMuse both show the 8 August trading day finishing near **$64,930**, while OpenBitcoin and Twelve Data put the same date’s high just above **$65.0k**, which helps explain why markets often anchor around nearby bands rather than far-out levels on short-dated price contracts[1][2][4][6]. For Polymarket users, that means small spot moves, not large trend calls, tend to decide whether a threshold is reached.

The catalysts to watch are the usual intraday drivers: spot BTC moves across major venues, US macro releases that shift dollar liquidity, and any ETF flow or regulatory headlines that can move Bitcoin quickly without warning. A Yahoo Finance note on 7 August linked firmer crypto prices to the latest US jobs data, which is a reminder that even a contract expiring within hours can be sensitive to fresh macro prints and weekend market positioning[18]. If the implied strike depends on a specific price point, traders also need to watch the exact settlement convention and timing, because a brief wick above or below the level can matter more than the day’s closing tone.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track What price will Bitcoin hit on August 8? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.