What price will Bitcoin hit on August 20?

Platform comparison

Market context

Bitcoin's price action on 20 August 2026 will determine whether this contract settles YES. The 2% crowd probability reflects a view that Bitcoin reaching an unspecified target price on that specific date is unlikely within the next two years. On Polymarket, this contract trades as conditional tokens on Polygon, settled in USDC, with the settlement window closing on 21 August 2026 at 04:00 UTC. The current pricing suggests traders assign low odds to whatever threshold the market setter has defined—whether that's a round number like $100,000 or a more granular level.

Historical Bitcoin price movements show that single-day targets become increasingly difficult to hit as time horizons extend. During 2021's bull run, Bitcoin moved from $29,000 to $69,000 across the year, yet specific daily price predictions proved unreliable even with shorter windows. The 2% probability sits well below base rates for major asset price movements over 24-month periods, suggesting either an extremely high price target, an unusually precise strike level, or market scepticism about Bitcoin's volatility trajectory in 2026.

Traders monitoring this contract should track macroeconomic policy announcements, particularly US Federal Reserve decisions and inflation data releases scheduled near August 2026. Bitcoin's correlation with risk assets has shifted materially since 2023; any significant equity market moves in the months preceding the settlement date could reshape expectations. Additionally, regulatory developments—particularly any major jurisdiction announcements on crypto taxation or custody frameworks—historically trigger sharp Bitcoin repricing within 24-hour windows.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.