What price will Bitcoin hit on August 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

Bitcoin's price action on 11 August 2026 will determine settlement of this contract, with the market currently pricing a 0% probability of a YES outcome. On Polymarket, this conditional token trades against USDC on Polygon, meaning traders are expressing near-total certainty that Bitcoin will not reach whatever price threshold the market setter has defined. The settlement window closes on 12 August at 04:00 UTC, giving a roughly 24-hour observation period for the underlying spot price across major exchanges.

Historical volatility in Bitcoin's daily price swings provides context for interpreting this extreme probability. During 2021's bull run, Bitcoin moved 15–20% in single days; even in calmer periods, 5–10% daily moves occur regularly. A 0% crowd probability suggests either an exceptionally high price target or, conversely, a target so low it contradicts current market conditions. Comparable Polymarket contracts on Bitcoin price levels typically show non-zero probabilities unless the threshold sits multiple standard deviations beyond reasonable expectations, making this contract's pricing unusual enough to warrant scrutiny of the exact settlement terms.

Traders monitoring this contract should track macroeconomic announcements in early August 2026, particularly US inflation data and Federal Reserve communications, which historically move Bitcoin significantly. Regulatory developments—especially any major jurisdiction announcements on crypto policy—could shift volatility expectations. Exchange-traded fund flows and spot Bitcoin holdings among large institutions also influence price discovery. The specific settlement mechanism and price feed source (Coinbase, Kraken, or an index) will determine whether intraday wicks or closing prices matter, a detail critical for traders considering positions near the threshold.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Scam?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.