What price will Bitcoin hit August 10-16?

Platform comparison

Market context

Bitcoin's price action during the week of 10–16 August 2026 will determine settlement of this contract. The market currently prices this outcome at 0% on Polymarket, reflecting either extreme confidence in a specific price range or minimal trading volume on the conditional token pair. Settlement occurs on 17 August, giving traders a full week to monitor spot prices across major exchanges and adjust positions via USDC-backed conditional tokens on Polygon.

Historical precedent suggests Bitcoin's weekly price volatility has ranged from 5–15% in stable market conditions, though geopolitical shocks or macroeconomic announcements can drive sharper moves. The August 2021 rally saw Bitcoin climb 20% in a single week following institutional adoption signals, whilst the March 2020 crash produced a 50% drawdown in days. A 0% crowd probability typically indicates either that the specified price band lies far outside consensus expectations or that traders have concentrated liquidity elsewhere on the order book. Comparing this to similar weekly price contracts from prior years shows that extreme probabilities often reflect genuine disagreement about volatility rather than certainty.

Traders should monitor Federal Reserve communications and inflation data releases scheduled for early August, as these have historically moved Bitcoin alongside broader risk assets. Spot ETF inflows, mining difficulty adjustments, and any major regulatory announcements from the SEC or international bodies could shift sentiment sharply. On-chain metrics including exchange inflows and whale accumulation patterns will provide real-time signals for position sizing before settlement.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.