Total commitments for the Credible public sale on MetaDAO

Platform comparison

Market context

Credible Finance’s curated raise on MetaDAO opened on 13 July 2026, with investors depositing USDC over a four-day window against a discretionary cap. The market prices the YES outcome at 99%, reflecting near-certainty that commitments will exceed the title’s threshold before the 31 August 2026 settlement deadline. This high probability aligns with MetaDAO’s track record: from April to December 2025, its projects raised $96M combined, with institutional backing from funds like Variant, 6MV, and Paradigm securing a recent $9.9M OTC round [2]. The on-chain model locks all USDC in a market-governed treasury, slashing rug risks and enforcing long-term alignment via futarchy, which has driven 7× gains for UMBRA and 3× for META [2].

Traders should monitor the live “committed” figure on Credible’s sale page, as resolution hinges solely on whether this number hits the threshold before the deadline, regardless of later refunds [1]. Key catalysts include the four-day commitment window closing, any founder adjustments to the discretionary cap, and announcements on integration milestones for Credible’s global pay-in/pay-out rails across 40+ markets [1]. The raise’s success is further supported by MetaDAO’s evolution into an on-chain allocator where markets filter weak projects, with demand rising for launches in finance, privacy, and AI sectors [2]. With USDC deposits settling on Polygon and conditional tokens governing outcomes, the mechanics are transparent and verifiable on-chain.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Total commitments for the Credible public sale on MetaDAO across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Scam? trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.