Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 (H.R.3633) has passed the House but remains stalled in the Senate, leaving its 2026 signing uncertain despite a current 38% YES probability on Polymarket. Traders holding conditional tokens on Polygon, settled in USDC, are betting on a legislative breakthrough before the 31 December 2026 deadline, yet the bill faces the same hurdles that blocked its predecessor, FIT21, which passed the House in 2024 but never reached the President’s desk [3]. Historical precedent suggests that crypto market structure bills often die in committee reconciliation; the CLARITY Act must still navigate a 60-vote Senate floor threshold, reconcile with the Senate Agriculture Committee’s version, and secure presidential approval, a sequence that has historically proven difficult for bipartisan digital asset legislation [3].

Key catalysts include the Senate Agriculture Committee’s scheduling of a vote and any public statements from key lawmakers regarding reconciliation timelines, as delays here could push the bill past the settlement window. Recent reporting highlights that the Act grants the CFTC exclusive jurisdiction over digital commodity spot markets while maintaining SEC authority over investment contracts, a division that has sparked debate among regulators and may slow final passage [3][4]. Traders should monitor Congress.gov for updates on H.R.3633’s status, particularly any movement toward a Senate floor vote or reconciliation announcements, as these are the primary dependencies for the bill becoming law before the deadline [1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Scam?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.