Bitcoin price on May 31?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Bitcoin's spot price at noon ET on 31 May 2026 will determine this market's resolution, with settlement tied to the Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle close at that precise moment. The 0% implied probability reflects the market's current inability to price a contract settling nearly eighteen months forward with meaningful confidence. On Polymarket, this position trades as conditional tokens on Polygon, backed by USDC collateral, meaning traders are effectively wagering on Binance's data feed without intermediary risk beyond smart contract execution.

Historical Bitcoin price prediction markets show that longer-dated contracts (beyond six months) typically trade at compressed probabilities across all brackets, since volatility assumptions compound and fundamental drivers remain genuinely uncertain. During 2021–2022, similar eighteen-month-out markets saw probability mass cluster around median price estimates rather than extreme ranges, yet actual settlement often fell outside consensus bands. The current 0% reading suggests either no meaningful liquidity has formed yet or traders are deferring position-taking until closer to the settlement window.

Catalysts shaping Bitcoin's trajectory through May 2026 include Federal Reserve policy shifts, institutional adoption milestones, and regulatory developments—particularly any major jurisdiction's stance on spot Bitcoin ETFs or mining. The Bitcoin halving cycle, with the next event expected in April 2024, historically influences price dynamics across the following two years. Traders monitoring this contract should track macroeconomic data, central bank communications, and any significant changes to Binance's operational status or data reporting standards, all of which could affect both the underlying price and settlement reliability.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Scam? is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Scam? triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.