Bitcoin above ___ on May 11?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

This market resolves based on Bitcoin's closing price on the Binance BTC/USDT pair at precisely noon Eastern Time on 11 May 2026, using the 1-minute candle data. The current 100% implied probability reflects either an extremely high threshold price or substantial uncertainty about how Polymarket's USDC-settled conditional tokens will track Bitcoin's actual spot price at that specific moment. Traders holding YES tokens on Polygon are effectively betting that BTC will close above the specified level; those holding NO are betting against it. The settlement mechanism depends on Binance's official candle data, making exchange-specific pricing dynamics—rather than broader Bitcoin movements across other venues—the decisive factor.

Historical precedent suggests that single-point-in-time Bitcoin price predictions at major exchanges exhibit high variance, particularly when settlement windows extend years into the future. Comparable Polymarket contracts on Bitcoin price levels have typically seen probabilities drift substantially as spot prices move and volatility expectations shift. A 100% probability at this stage indicates either an exceptionally conservative threshold or that the market has priced in an extremely wide confidence interval around Bitcoin's expected range by May 2026.

Traders should monitor Bitcoin's macroeconomic backdrop, including Federal Reserve policy signals and institutional adoption trends, as these drive multi-year price trajectories. Near-term catalysts include regulatory announcements affecting spot Bitcoin ETF flows and major corporate treasury decisions. Binance's operational status and any changes to its BTC/USDT pair specifications would directly affect settlement mechanics, though such disruptions remain unlikely over a two-year horizon.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.