Bitcoin above ___ on May 10?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

This market settles on Bitcoin's noon ET price on 10 May 2026 according to Binance's BTC/USDT 1-minute candle. The 0% crowd probability reflects either an extremely high strike price relative to current spot, or minimal liquidity and trader participation in this specific contract. On Polymarket, the position trades as conditional tokens on Polygon, backed by USDC collateral, with settlement determined by Binance's published candle data at the specified timestamp.

Bitcoin's intraday volatility at fixed timestamps has historically ranged between 2–8% on daily moves, though noon ET specifically carries no particular significance as a price inflection point. Comparable single-candle resolution markets show that precise timestamp bets require either directional conviction on broader market moves or tactical positioning around known volatility windows. The current zero probability suggests traders either view the strike as unreachable given macro conditions, or the contract lacks sufficient order book depth to attract meaningful positions.

Catalysts through May 2026 remain uncertain at this distance, though historical patterns show Bitcoin responds to Federal Reserve policy signals, macroeconomic data releases, and regulatory announcements. Traders monitoring this contract should track broader bitcoin spot prices relative to the strike level as the settlement date approaches, and note that Binance's candle close—not intraday wicks or other exchanges—determines the outcome. Liquidity conditions on the market itself may shift substantially as May 2026 nears, potentially allowing better pricing discovery.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.