Market statistics
- Total volume
- $3.3M
- 24h volume
- $2.0M
- Open interest
- $1.7M
Available prediction outcomes (11)
Sorted by descending live probability. Click any outcome to trade it on PolyGram.
Market context
This market resolves based on Bitcoin's closing price on the Binance BTC/USDT pair at the 12:00 noon ET candle on 3 June 2026. The 95% implied probability reflects confidence that Bitcoin will trade above a specified threshold at that precise moment. Settlement hinges on Binance's 1-minute candle data, making this a narrow technical bet rather than a broader directional wager. Traders holding YES tokens on Polygon receive conditional USDC upon resolution if the threshold is breached; NO holders receive nothing.
Historical precedent suggests that single-candle price targets at major exchanges rarely fail when probabilities exceed 90%, particularly for thresholds set near current spot prices. Bitcoin's intraday volatility has compressed significantly since 2023, with noon ET candles typically closing within 1–2% of the preceding day's close. The 18-month settlement window allows substantial price discovery, though the specificity of the noon ET timestamp introduces execution risk around market microstructure and potential exchange outages.
Catalysts affecting this outcome include Federal Reserve policy announcements, major institutional custody developments, and regulatory filings affecting spot Bitcoin ETFs. The market currently prices in minimal tail risk, suggesting traders expect either stable macro conditions or a price level set conservatively relative to anticipated June 2026 spot levels. Binance's operational reliability and the absence of scheduled maintenance windows on that date remain implicit assumptions embedded in the 95% probability.
Wikipedia Context
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BitcoinBitcoin is the first decentralized cryptocurrency. Based on a free-market ideology, bitcoin was invented in 2008 when an unknown person published a white paper under the pseudonym of Satoshi Nakamoto. Use of bitcoin as a currency began in 2009, with the release of its open-source implementation. From 2021 to 2025, El Salvador adopted it as legal tender curre
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Bitcoin in El SalvadorEl Salvador was the first country in the world to use bitcoin as legal tender, after it was adopted as such by the Legislative Assembly of El Salvador in 2021. It has been promoted by Nayib Bukele, the president of El Salvador, who claimed that it would improve the economy by making banking easier for Salvadorans, and that it would encourage foreign investme
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History of bitcoinBitcoin is a cryptocurrency, a digital asset that uses cryptography to control its creation and management rather than relying on central authorities. Originally designed as a medium of exchange, Bitcoin is now primarily regarded as a store of value.
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Bitcoin buried in Newport landfillIn 2013, Welsh computer engineer James Howells mistakenly disposed of a laptop hard drive containing the private key for 8,000 Bitcoin in the Docksway landfill in Newport, Wales. Howells subsequently assembled a team of specialists and secured funding to excavate the site, but Newport City Council refused permission, citing the environmental impact of the se
Methodology
This page reviews Bitcoin above 2026 on June 3? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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