Colombia Presidential Election Runoff: Margin of Victory

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Polymarket is pricing this runoff margin contract at **0% YES**, which means the market is effectively assigning no chance to any qualifying victory band inside the listed range on USDC-settled conditional tokens on Polygon. The real-world event is Colombia’s second-round presidential election, and the contract resolves off the absolute gap between the top two candidates’ shares of valid votes, not the raw vote total.[7]

The first-round result is the main comparison point for reading that price. Abelardo de la Espriella led Iván Cepeda 43.74% to 40.90%, a margin of just 2.84 percentage points, while the remaining vote was split enough to keep the runoff live rather than settled.[1] That was a tighter opening than many poll-based expectations, since contemporary coverage noted de la Espriella had polled ahead before election day but still faced a competitive transfer fight into the second round.[4][8] For traders, a zero-price band on Polymarket usually implies either the contract is already effectively resolved by on-chain observations or the market is treating the specified margin range as out of reach.

The key catalysts are the official runoff count, any late vote certifications, and whether preliminary returns converge quickly enough to settle the contract within the window ending 2026-06-22T03:59:00Z. Recent reporting said the runoff was set for 21 June and that undecided and invalid-vote shares could matter in a close race, with polls showing a de la Espriella edge but no guarantee of a large margin.[4][9] In practice, Polymarket traders watching this market need to follow the published official tally, because conditional tokens on Polygon only pay out once the resolution source is clear and final enough to match the contract wording.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Colombia Presidential Election Runoff: Margin of Victory on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Scam??

Zero. Polymarket Scam? routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.