Claude Fable 5 restored for US customers by…?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Anthropic suspended Claude Fable 5 access for US customers on 12 June 2026, three days after public release, following a US government directive. The market prices restoration by 2 July 2026 at effectively zero on Polygon, with conditional YES tokens trading near worthless against USDC pairs. Resolution hinges on whether Anthropic reinstates the model under its original name or a confirmed equivalent within the settlement window—roughly twelve months from suspension.

Historical precedent suggests government-ordered model suspensions rarely reverse quickly. When the US restricted access to certain dual-use technologies or imposed export controls on computational resources, reversal typically required formal regulatory review or legislative action rather than commercial negotiation. The 2023 executive order on AI safety and the subsequent interagency coordination mechanisms established processes that typically operate on multi-month timescales. Anthropic's compliance with the initial suspension indicates institutional deference to regulatory authority, making unilateral restoration unlikely without explicit government clearance.

Traders should monitor announcements from the US Department of Commerce, which oversees AI export controls, and any Congressional activity regarding AI governance frameworks. Anthropic's public statements on the suspension's rationale will signal whether the issue involves technical safety concerns—potentially addressable through model modifications—or broader policy disputes requiring legislative intervention. Recent reporting from Reuters and The Information has tracked similar regulatory actions against other frontier model developers, establishing that reversals typically follow formal policy changes rather than internal company decisions.

Methodology

This page reviews Claude Fable 5 restored for US customers by…? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket Scam? — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Scam? is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Scam? triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.