Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket has priced YES at 1%, meaning traders are demanding roughly 100:1 odds that the Strait of Hormuz will see daily transit calls return to a 7-day average of 60 or higher by end of May 2026. The contract settles on IMF Portwatch data alone, which tracks container, tanker, bulk, and general cargo arrivals. A single week averaging 60+ transits triggers resolution; the bar is modest relative to historical norms, yet the crowd assigns near-zero probability to hitting it within 18 months.

The Strait handled roughly 80–90 daily transits before regional tensions escalated in 2023–2024. Houthi attacks on shipping, US naval operations, and insurance premiums created a structural drag that persisted through 2025. Even temporary ceasefire announcements have failed to restore traffic; shipping lines maintain diversionary routes via the Cape of Good Hope despite longer transit times and fuel costs. Comparable chokepoint recoveries—the Suez Canal after 2021, the Black Sea after 2022—took 12–24 months to stabilise, and those involved less entrenched geopolitical friction than the Red Sea corridor currently faces.

Traders should monitor ceasefire negotiations between Israel and regional actors, US policy shifts on Iranian sanctions, and Houthi statements on targeting shipping. Recent reporting from Reuters and Lloyd's List indicates insurers remain reluctant to lower premiums without sustained de-escalation. Any major announcement of regional military withdrawal or formal shipping corridor agreements would be a catalyst worth watching, though the 1% pricing suggests the market views such developments as unlikely within the settlement window.

Methodology

We track Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Scam? is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Scam? triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.