Bitcoin price on June 23?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying real-world event is the final closing price of the Bitcoin-to-USDT pair on Binance at noon Eastern Time on 23 June 2026. Today, Polymarket prices the "Yes" outcome for this contract at 0%, implying the crowd believes Bitcoin will not exceed the specific bracket threshold required for resolution. This market settles on-chain via conditional tokens on the Polygon network, with payouts denominated in USDC, reflecting the automated execution of these binary bets without intermediary oversight.

Historical data frames this near-zero probability against recent volatility. On 1 June 2026, Bitcoin traded at $72,145.11, a figure that has since eroded significantly to approximately $63,585.99 as of the latest spot data[1][6]. This decline of over $8,500 in just two weeks, coupled with a year-on-year drop of roughly $33,500 from the all-time high of $126,198.07 reached in October 2025, suggests a sustained bearish trend that makes breaching higher brackets unlikely[1]. Current technical indicators, including moving averages, show the price trading below key support zones, reinforcing the sentiment that selling pressure remains dominant[2].

Traders must monitor upcoming regulatory announcements and macroeconomic schedules that could act as catalysts for sudden price shifts. The next Bitcoin halving is expected in 2028, meaning supply-side shocks are not imminent, leaving the market vulnerable to demand fluctuations[5]. Recent price predictions from Binance suggest a modest 5% increase to $64,170.11 by the end of this week, yet this remains well below the levels required to trigger a "Yes" resolution in the current bracket structure[2]. Any deviation from these forecasts, driven by unexpected institutional flows or geopolitical instability, would be the primary variable to watch for a potential reversal in the current 0% crowd-implied probability.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.