Bitcoin price on June 13?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The market settles on Bitcoin's closing price at noon ET on 13 June 2026, using Binance's 1-minute candle data for BTC/USDT. The 0% implied probability reflects the market's current inability to price a specific price point eighteen months forward with meaningful confidence. On Polymarket, this contract trades as a conditional token on Polygon, with USDC collateral backing positions; the binary resolution mechanism means traders are effectively betting whether Bitcoin closes within a defined bracket or outside it, with ties resolving to the higher range.

Historical precedent suggests that Bitcoin price brackets this far out typically trade at compressed odds. During 2024, similar six-month-forward price contracts showed minimal trading volume until the final month, when spot volatility and futures positioning began anchoring expectations. The current 0% reading likely indicates either that the bracket in question sits well outside consensus forecasts, or that liquidity remains too thin to establish meaningful probability. Bitcoin's realised volatility over rolling twelve-month periods has ranged from 45% to 75% annualised in recent years, making eighteen-month price predictions inherently wide.

Traders monitoring this contract should track macroeconomic calendar events—particularly Federal Reserve policy announcements and inflation data—alongside Bitcoin-specific catalysts including regulatory developments and major exchange or custody announcements. Recent spot ETF inflows and institutional adoption patterns have reduced Bitcoin's correlation with tech equities, though geopolitical shocks and credit events remain material drivers. The settlement date falls outside major crypto conference seasons, reducing event-driven volatility clustering.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Scam??

Zero. Polymarket Scam? routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.