Bitcoin price on July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing this BTC/USDT close at **0% YES**, which means the contract is effectively trading as if the Binance 1-minute candle at 12:00 ET on 31 July will settle outside the listed YES range or the market is simply too thin to show meaningful confidence. On Polymarket, that exposure is native USDC on Polygon, with outcome shares created as conditional tokens, so the displayed price is the crowd’s shorthand for the probability of the settlement price landing in the specified bracket.

The main frame for reading that **0%** is where Bitcoin has been trading recently: spot references in early-to-mid July put BTC roughly in the low- to mid-$60,000s, including levels around $62,000 to $63,000 and a 24-hour band near $61,977 to $63,064.[1][4][6][9][11] Comparable prediction-market ladders on the same date have clustered around the low-$60,000s, with visible interest in ranges such as $60,000–$62,000 and $62,000–$64,000, while higher brackets carry materially less volume.[2][3] That combination usually tells a trader the market is anchored to a narrow range, but not necessarily that the final 12:00 ET candle is impossible to hit.

Watch for any catalyst that can move BTC sharply into the noon New York window: US macro releases, Federal Reserve commentary, ETF flow headlines, and any Binance-specific trading disruption or fast move in the underlying BTC/USDT market. Because this market resolves from a single one-minute Binance close, not a daily average, even a brief spike or wick around midday can matter more than the broader day’s trend; a clean move through the settlement bracket is what counts. Recent price commentary has also shown analysts split between modest upside and a retreat towards the high-$50,000s, which underlines how sensitive the last hour of trading can be.[7]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Bitcoin price on July 31? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Scam?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.