Bitcoin price on August 21?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market settles on Bitcoin's closing price at noon ET on 21 August 2026, using the 1-minute candle from Binance's BTC/USDT pair. The 0% YES probability currently priced reflects the market's assessment that Bitcoin will not trade within whatever bracket this contract specifies—though the exact price range isn't stated in the available description. On Polymarket, this contract trades as a conditional token on Polygon, backed by USDC collateral, meaning positions can be entered or exited at any point before the 16:00 UTC settlement window closes on that date.

Historical Bitcoin price movements over similar timeframes show volatility clustering around macroeconomic events and regulatory announcements. During 2024, single-day swings of 5–8% were common during Federal Reserve communications or major exchange-traded fund developments. The August settlement date falls outside typical quarterly earnings seasons but sits within a period historically prone to summer volatility, particularly if geopolitical tensions or central bank policy shifts emerge in the preceding weeks.

Traders monitoring this contract should track Federal Reserve communications scheduled for mid-August, any major cryptocurrency regulation announcements from the SEC or international bodies, and Bitcoin's correlation with equity markets heading into late summer. Institutional inflows through spot Bitcoin ETFs, which have grown substantially since early 2024, can amplify price moves on lower-volume trading days. The specific price bracket determining YES resolution remains critical—if set conservatively around current levels, the 0% probability may reflect realistic pricing; if set at extreme ranges, it signals contrarian positioning.

Methodology

This page reviews Bitcoin price on August 21? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Scam?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.