Bitcoin above 2026 on May 16?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

This contract settles on Bitcoin's closing price at noon ET on 16 May 2026, using the 1-minute candle from Binance's BTC/USDT pair. The 0% crowd probability reflects either an extremely high strike price relative to current spot levels or minimal liquidity at this particular expiration window. Polymarket's USDC settlement via Polygon means resolution depends entirely on Binance's recorded close for that specific minute—no averaging across exchanges, no alternative data feeds. Traders holding conditional tokens here are betting on a precise price point at a precise moment, making this a pure directional bet rather than a volatility or range play.

Bitcoin's spot price has historically shown modest intraday volatility relative to its longer-term swings, though noon ET often coincides with US market open effects. Previous single-candle contracts on Polymarket have resolved based on similar exchange-specific snapshots, and the pattern suggests that extreme strike prices—those far outside reasonable expectation ranges—consistently attract near-zero probability. The 18-month timeframe to May 2026 introduces substantial uncertainty around macroeconomic conditions, regulatory developments, and potential Bitcoin adoption shifts that could move the underlying asset materially.

Traders monitoring this contract should track Federal Reserve policy announcements and major institutional Bitcoin holdings disclosures, as these have historically driven significant price moves. Binance's operational status and any potential API changes would also matter for settlement certainty. The specific strike price embedded in this market's title will ultimately determine whether the 0% probability reflects rational pricing or an opportunity gap.

Methodology

We track Bitcoin above 2026 on May 16? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Scam? is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Scam? triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.