Bitcoin above ___ on May 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

This market resolves based on Bitcoin's closing price on the Binance BTC/USDT pair at the 12:00 noon ET candle on 13 May 2026. The 100% implied probability reflects either an extremely high threshold price or a technical certainty baked into the market structure itself. Traders on Polymarket are pricing this through conditional tokens on Polygon, with USDC collateral backing positions. The contract's current valuation suggests the market has already priced in a near-certain outcome, though the specific price threshold remains the critical variable determining whether this resolves affirmatively.

Historical precedent shows that Bitcoin's intraday volatility at fixed timestamps can be substantial. Over the past two years, single-minute candles at noon ET have exhibited swings of 2–4% during normal market conditions, and considerably more during periods of macroeconomic data releases or regulatory announcements. The 100% probability here likely indicates either a threshold so low that Bitcoin would need to collapse entirely to fail it, or a market with insufficient liquidity to price genuine uncertainty.

Traders should monitor Federal Reserve communications and US economic data scheduled near the resolution date, as these have historically driven Bitcoin's directional moves. Institutional flows into spot Bitcoin ETFs, which have become material price drivers since their approval in January 2024, remain a secondary catalyst. Exchange rate movements in USDT pairs can also diverge slightly from broader Bitcoin price action, making Binance-specific liquidity conditions worth tracking in the final hours before the noon ET candle closes.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.