Claude Mythos released on…?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Anthropic has not yet released a model officially named or designated as "Claude Mythos" to the general public. The market currently prices this event at 0% on Polymarket's USDC/Polygon infrastructure, reflecting trader consensus that such a release before 30 June 2026 is either highly unlikely or sufficiently uncertain that no meaningful liquidity has formed around YES positions. The conditional token structure means any YES resolution would require Anthropic's explicit public announcement of general availability for a model meeting the specified naming criteria.

Anthropic's model release cadence provides limited precedent for predicting Mythos emergence. The company has released Claude 3 variants (Haiku, Sonnet, Opus) across 2024, with Opus 4.5 arriving in April 2024 and Claude 3.5 Sonnet in June 2024. No official roadmap or public commitment to a "Mythos" designation exists in company statements or SEC filings related to the pending IPO process. The naming convention itself remains speculative; Anthropic has shown no pattern of using mythological nomenclature for model tiers, instead maintaining the current three-tier system.

Traders monitoring this contract should track Anthropic's quarterly earnings calls and product announcements following any IPO completion, expected sometime in 2025 according to industry reporting. The company's technical blog and official model cards represent the only authoritative sources for model naming. Any strategic pivot toward new model families, capability tiers, or nomenclature would likely surface first in developer documentation or API updates rather than press releases, creating potential settlement ambiguity that currently suppresses trading activity on this contract.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Scam? is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Scam? triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.