Who will be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Department of War maintains a list of Chinese military companies operating within the United States, compiled under Section 1260H of the 2021 National Defense Authorization Act. This market prices the probability that a specified company will be fully removed from that roster by 30 June 2027. Polymarket currently values this outcome at 42% on USDC-denominated conditional tokens, suggesting traders assess meaningful but uncertain odds of delisting within the 18-month window. The contract settles binary: either the named entity disappears from the official list entirely, or it remains listed.

Precedent for removals exists but remains sparse. The US government has previously delisted entities from sanctions and military-affiliated designations, though such actions typically follow diplomatic negotiations, corporate restructuring, or successful legal challenges. The Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) and Treasury Department have demonstrated willingness to modify designations when circumstances change materially, but Chinese military company designations carry heightened geopolitical weight. No major removals from this specific roster have occurred since its 2021 inception, establishing a baseline of institutional reluctance to reverse listings.

Traders should monitor announcements from the Department of Defense, Treasury, and Commerce Department regarding US-China relations and technology restrictions. Any significant thaw in bilateral tensions, particularly around semiconductors or defence technology, could trigger policy reviews. Additionally, corporate name changes, mergers, or formal divestitures of US operations by listed entities might prompt administrative reconsideration. The Federal Register and official DoD statements remain primary information sources for delisting announcements.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Scam?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.